The World Is Flat. The World Is Curved. These are two recent economic books on the subject of global growth. Both made the point that emerging economies would catch up to industrialized economies with the passing of time. Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC nations) were seeing double digit growth rates, while Europe and the U.S. were slumping. China would overtake the U.S. in GDP by 2020. Economic power was shifting to the Southern Hemisphere, as it should. Past linear progression accurately describes and defines future progress.
In my industry, the warning is: Past performance is no indication of future results. Would that more financial professionals – and the commentariat – promulgated this simple truth.